The Academy Awards is Hollywood's biggest night, no doubt!
Millions of people watch this huge event each year in hopes that their favorite actor, actress, director and movie might win top honors.
We all saw Clint Eastwood's labor of love, Million Dollar Baby, receive the top awards last year (including; Best Picture, Best Director for Clint Eastwood, Best Actress in a Leading Role for Hilary Swank, Best Actor in a Supporting Role for Morgan Freeman)
And who could forget The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King's 11 Oscar sweep back in 2004?
You gotta love the Oscars!
With the Academy Awards ceremony only hours away, people are still wondering who is going to walk away with the Oscar tonight, while others have already placed their bets.
Many have predicted, some are conflicted, but at the end of the day... It's not about who we want to win, it's about who is going to win!
This year it looks like a close race in all the major categories...

Will 2006 be the year of Ang Lee's Brokeback Mountain? Or will Crash pull off a last minute upset?
Will Reese Witherspoon Walk The Line to Oscar victory without Joaquin Phoenix?
Does Felicity Huffman stand a chance for Best Actress?
Best Actor: Johnny Cash or Truman Capote?
Will Palestine's Paradise Now win Best Foreign Picture, or will South Africa's Tsotsi get it?
Who might be this year's biggest surprise? Who was snubbed this year? Who doesn't stand a chance of winning this year?

Here, I share some of my thoughts on this year's nominees and predict the possible winners (If the Academy voters do the right thing, which they normally don't)

Best Actress
(Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line – Felicity Huffman, Transamerica – Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice – Charlize Theron, North Country – Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents)
This has got to be the weakest category this year.
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon
Should Win: Felicity Huffman

We all saw the adorable, ever fabulous Reese Witherspoon picking up awards left and right for her excellent portrayal of Country singer and Mrs. Johnny Cash, June Carter Cash in "Walk The Line"... But if we take a look back at recent Best Actress winners we will notice that they all had something in common; all of their Oscar winning roles required a complete physical transformation (Hilary Swank had to gain about 20lbs. of muscle for last year's win in "Million Dollar Baby". Gorgeous Charlize Theron also gained weight and was unrecognizable in "Monster" in 2004. The same goes for Nicole Kidman and Halle Berry in previous years)
So does this mean there's hope for a Felicity Huffman win this year?
Maybe.
Felicity Huffman is nominated this year for Best Actress in a Leading Role for her role as a conservative transsexual woman in "Transamerica", a challenging role that proves Huffman is an Oscar worthy actress with great range.
A lot of people saw "Walk The Line" this year, but not many people saw "Transamerica", and for Felicity Huffman to carry such a small movie entirely on her back is Oscar worthy.

Best Actor
(Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote – Joaquin Phoenix, Walk The Line – Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain – Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow – David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck)
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix

Philip Seymour Hoffman gave the strongest performance of the year as author Truman Capote in Capote and everyone took notice since he had received every major award for a leading actor in a motion picture this year.
You know an actor is great when a small movie like Capote receives a Best Picture nomination and a Best Director nomination for first time director Bennett Miller… all that because of the rave reviews that Philip S. Hoffman received for his role.

This was supposed to be the year of Joaquin Phoenix. He was more than great in Gladiator and a lot of people were disappointed when he lost the Supporting Actor Oscar that year. Critics soon thought that Phoenix would redeem himself in 2006, and win the Oscar for an Actor in a Leading Role for portraying country legend Johnny Cash in the biopic, Walk The Line. Phoenix was amazing as Cash – he became Johnny Cash!
Such an intense, great and charismatic actor should not be denied any credit.

Sure, the timing was bad. If he wasn't nominated in the same year Philip S. Hoffman was, the Oscar would be his…no question. Also, many people say that amie Foxx's win last year for "Ray" hurt his chances of winning this year, but I couldn't disagree more. Johnny Cash and Ray Charles are completely different, both as people and movie roles. Besides, Jamie Foxx campaigned for that Oscar like it was the presidential race… he was allover the place and was so annoying that they gave him the Oscar to shut him up!!
I still think that it's completely unfair that Reese Witherspoon ends up getting all the praise and attention for the movie that was supposed to be all about Joaquin Phoenix's Johnny Cash.
Reese was great, overrated, but still great… But if only one Walk The Line star will get an Oscar for this movie, it should be Joaquin Phoenix.
I know everyone says Heath Ledger should/might/could/will win, my response to those people: haha..!! NEVER!!

Best Supporting Actress
(Amy Adams, Junebug – Katherine Keener, Capote – Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener – Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain – Frances McDormand, North Country)
Who Will Win: Rachel Weisz
Who Should Win: Amy Adams

Rachel Weisz does have the edge, and many predict that she has this one in the bag, but I'm praying to god for a sweet upset… and there's nothing sweeter than an Amy Adams upset. Weisz was great in The Constant Gardener, and she already has the Golden Globe and the SAG and the Oscar on Sunday… If nothing (or no one) ruins her chances.
The movie Junebug came out early in 2005 and not a lot of people saw it.
It's a small independent movie with lots of heart, and Amy Adams is the heart and soul of Junebug.
While many people predict that if Rachel Weisz is to lose the Oscar it will be to none other than Brokeback's Michelle Williams ("If" being the key word here), but I think Amy Adams will be Weisz's biggest challenge.
Williams is week, and her performance was very plain. Brokeback Mountain's only chance to score in the acting categories is Jake Gyllenhaal. (Yes, you heard me, not Heath or Michelle… it's Jake, and that's "If" he can pull it off, and I hope he does)

Best Supporting Actor
(Matt Dillon, Crash – Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man – George Clooney, Syriana -Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain – William Hurt, A History Of Violence) Who Will Win: George Clooney or Paul Giamatti
Who Should Win: Jake Gyllenhaal
This is the toughest and best category this year. Anyone could win, and that would be great.

Everyone is still talking about Paul Giamatti's snub last year for a Best Actor nomination for Sideways; I still can't get over it… How the Academy could ever overlook such an amazing performance last year was beyond me (Giamatti was not nominated for Sideways and so was Jim Carrey for Eternal Sunshine for the Spotless Mind, which was another great performance)
There is nothing special about Giamatti's performance in Cinderella Man, to be honest; the whole movie was forgettable and it-just-didn't-work. The Academy members felt they had to nominate him this year to make up for last year's terrible mistake, and it's doesn't make up for it.
Same goes for Clooney. His performance was by no means "Oscar Worthy", if they have to nominate someone from Syriana it should have been Matt Damon, who is a GREAT actor (probably the greatest, most underrated actor of our generation… along with Edward Norton and Joaquin Phoenix) Yes, Syriana was a bad movie! But George Clooney had to be nominated in this category for anything since he is not going to win in the directing category (not this year anyway)
I'm not crazy. I feel it in my bones that Jake Gyllenhaal might pull a shocking win.
Most critics have labeled him as this category's Dark Horse for being "Too young". Yes, he is young, 25, but that shouldn't matter (Adrien Brody won in 2003 for Best Actor and he was only 26)
Jake is the one I'm rooting for. He brought so much heart and emotion to the role of Jack Twist in Brokeback Mountain. Honestly, anything could happen this year… No one expected Jake to win the BAFTA… and he did! So, I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Oscar night.
So, we all know by now who I'm rooting for on Oscar night, but what would happen if Matt Dillon won?
Well, Lets put it this way, Crash is a big, all-star cast, controversial movie and the only movie that will probably give Brokeback Mountain a run for its money. Matt Dillon is a good actor, the best of the all star cast, the most controversial character in the movie, and the only surprise win that could actually be most deserving (next to Jake).

Best Director
(George Clooney, Good Night & Good Luck – Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain –Bennett Miller, Capote – Steven Spielberg, Munich – Paul Haggis, Crash)
Who Will Win: Ang Lee
Who Should Win: Ang Lee or Paul Haggis

2006 is the year of Brokeback Mountain… or is it?
Let me put it this way, If Crash manages to upset Brokeback for Best Picture… Ang Lee need not worry. With a Golden Globe and the Director's Guild awards, the Oscar is a given.
There is no way Ang Lee is going to lose this award to anyone!
Paul Haggis did not win the Oscar for best adapted screenplay last year for Million Dollar Baby… and as much as I hate to say it, this is Ang's year and Ang's award, and no one's going to take it away from him.

Best Picture
(Crash – Capote – Munich – Good Night & Good Luck – Brokeback Mountain)
Who Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Who Should Win: Crash

If I had been asked this question a few weeks back, the answer would have been a no-brainer, but now with Crash gaining momentum… more and more people (including myself) are hoping for a Crash!
Remember last year, critics almost swore The Aviator would take home the Best Picture Oscar, and it went to Million Dollar Baby… so there is a possibility, no matter how small.
I am still 100% positive that Brokeback will win the big prize of the night.

Biggest Snubs
We all know who got nominated (weather they deserve it or not), but who was left out this year? Who is this year's Paul Giamatti?

Well... it was quite easy to nominate Keira Knightley for Pride and Prejudice this year since there were no great female performances this year.
The only deserving female performances that I felt were ignored this year were: Laura Linney in The Squid and The Whale, Maria Bello in A History of Violence and Joan Allen in The Upside of Anger. I thought those three were far better than Judi Dench and Keira Knightley, but still, this is a very weak category.

But the "Paul Giamatti Snub" of 2006 goes to... Ralph Fiennes in The Constant Gardener!
It was one of the greatest performances of the year and he was completely left out in the cold! He wasn't nominated for a single thing! (Except for the BAFTA, but still, he could have had it so much better) Another snubbed actor is Viggo Mortensen in A History of Violence but his snub is not as big as Ralph Fineness'.
I don't know if I'd consider them as snubbed, but I thought Jeff Daniels in The Squid and the Whale and Cillian Murphy in Breakfast on Pluto deserved to be nominated... maybe. But still, they were good performances.

And those who were so damn lucky to even be nominated (who have no chance of winning, shouldn't even be nominated in the first place):

- Judi Dench: She already has an Oscar, does she really need another?
- Keira Knightley: Nothing special about her at all. So plain, so boring.
- William Hurt: Not enough screen time to win.
- Frances McDormand: She'll always have Fargo, and even that was too much.
- Charlize Theron: Too fresh off of her 2004 Monster win to win again.
- Michelle Williams: Are you kidding me?! No chance!
- Heath Ledger: What a JOKE!! NO, NO, NO CHANCE! Not this decade!

So, will Brokeback Mountain sweep? Or will Crash surprise?
It's Reese vs. Felicity, Phoenix vs. Hoffman… but will it be Clooney vs. Giamatti?
Or a last minute Gyllenhaal vs. Dillon? Weisz vs. Adams?
Stay tuned for what is expected to be a very exciting night. If all else fails, you can at least depend on host, Jon Stewart, to be his funny, quick witted, charming self. (I can't wait to hear his Brokeback jokes)!
I guarantee you he's nothing like Chris Rock, thank god.

Good Night and Good Luck.

By Guest Writer May